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RobinHanson's avatar

I'm not sure "the next 100 years" is a useful unit of analysis. I prefer doubling times of the world economy as a unit, and expect the future to be very hard to see after enough doublings. So I'm trying to see into the early AI era where feasible, but not expecting to be able to see the whole thing.

As with cells in large biological organisms, surely during the early AI era there will be a strong temptation to use existing legacy systems that work, even if they are hard to greatly refactor. Sure in the very long run such legacies may perhaps have declining influence, but what reason do we have to think we can talk sensibly about such distant futures? We certainly know now of many legacy designs that have lasted a very long time so far.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I mostly meant that total economic output over the next 100 years greatly exceeds total output over all of history. I agree that coordination is hard, but even spending a small fraction of current effort on exploring novel redesigns would be enough to quickly catch up with stuff designed in the past. This is a disanalogy between the situation of human designers and evolution, suggesting that we may have less need to reuse parts.

I agree that early in history we will want to steal as much from biology as possible, and don't have strong views about when that period ends (but don't think the analogy to cells has much to say about that question).

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