Is There a Political Solution for White South Africans?

What are the prospects for whites in South Africa? Is there a way for them to survive as a people? The crucial fact is that over 80 percent of the population are black and fewer than 10 percent are white. The rest are Asians and “Coloreds,” who are a mixed-race, mainly Afrikaans-speaking people.

Whites therefore make up around 10 percent of voters, and in certain situations, 10 percent can carry a lot of weight. Unfortunately, in South Africa, the main party appealing to blacks, the African National Congress (ANC), has a near lock on power; it got over 60 percent of the vote in the last general election in 2014.

For whom do whites vote? Until now, mostly for the Democratic Alliance (DA), a party that is committed to a “race blind” vision of South Africa, and which is the main opposition. In 2014, it got around 22 percent of the vote.

However, since whites are only 10 percent of the vote, much of the DA’s vote cannot have come from whites. The rest came from Coloreds, Asians, and even some blacks, so it cannot be called a party that represents whites in any meaningful way.

In fact, under the present two-party system, there is an explicitly pro-black and anti-white party — the ANC — and the “race blind” party — the DA — that has to compete with the ANC for black votes in order to gain power. Therefore, it can’t afford to be too strongly opposed to the anti-white agenda of the ANC. It is weak on the question of land confiscation and other anti-white measures, which are routinely justified by the idea that any disparity in wealth is proof of “white privilege.”

Since the last election, there is an ANC-breakaway, Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which is even more ferociously anti-white than the ANC. It got over 6 percent of the vote. Finally, there is the Freedom Front Plus (FF+). When people even notice this party, it is often dismissed as a fringe group of Afrikaner separatists out of touch with modern South Africa, but at least the party has policies for dealing with life as a minority in South Africa.

EFF leader Julius Malema. (Credit Image: © Matthews Baloyi/RealTime via ZUMA Wire)

The FF+ is mainly focused on protecting Afrikaner rights. Its manifesto calls for the establishment of a national Afrikaner Council, which would administer every Afrikaans-speaking school, old-age home, sports club, and heritage site, such as the iconic Voortrekker Monument. Another goal is the establishment of a 10th province — South Africa has nine — located in the North West Cape as a “cultural home for Afrikaans-speaking people.” This would include many “Colored” Afrikaans speakers. Obviously, the FF+ is making an appeal based on language and culture rather than race — a racial appeal would be a difficult sell in today’s moral climate under black domination.

Still, the party’s basic message is to move beyond the naivete of the DA’s “race blind” approach and to mobilize in defense of minorities. This could be attractive to South Africa’s other minorities — English-speaking whites, Asians, and Cape Coloreds — who, together with Afrikaans-speaking whites, make up around a fifth of the population.

In democracies, minorities can be very influential, especially when their vital interests are at stake. In the United States, the Jewish and gay lobbies are good examples of groups with disproportionate influence. South African whites could have such an influence. The government is corrupt and harmful, bent on pursuing policies that will wreck the economy. This is the opposite of the old white-run regime that, stripped of racial antagonisms, was an economic growth machine that greatly benefited blacks.

There are two conditions that must be met for whites to change an otherwise inevitable outcome. First, there must be consolidation of a minority alliance and second, the majority black-power bloc, represented by the ANC, must be split.

A report by the South African site The Daily Maverick suggests that there is at least a possibility of a minority alliance. This would happen as whites and other minorities become increasingly disenchanted with the DA:

In the 2014 general elections, the FF+ won 165,715 votes nationally — a fraction of the DA’s 4,091,584, but enough to . . . give it four parliamentary seats.

Party leader Pieter Groenewald told Daily Maverick that the FF+ is anticipating major growth at the 2019 polls, much of it at the expense of the DA. . . .

Groenewald attributes such defections to a number of factors. DA infighting is one, but he suggests another is a perception among white voters that the DA is not truly committed to protecting their interests.

“[DA leader Mmusi] Maimane has made quite a lot of statements referring to white privilege,” says Groenewald. “[The tone is] not too far away from blaming white people for why people are poor, and people are picking that up.”

Groenewald also believes that some voters are attracted to the unambiguous opposition from the FF+ to land expropriation without compensation.

“When it comes to expropriation without compensation, the FF+ has the strong message standing up in Parliament,” he says.

“People say the DA is trying to play it both ways — it’s trying to attract black voters so it can’t come out too hard against expropriation without compensation.”

But there would be no point in the FF+ becoming a champion of minorities if all it did was destroy the DA and make the ANC the undisputed champion of the black majority. That would be dangerous for whites. But destroying the DA is vital to the project; the key, then, is dividing the black majority.

The only way to do that would be for Julius Malema’s EFF to gain enough support to stop the ANC from getting its usual majority. If that were to happen, the FF+, with its clear agenda and hard goals, would be in a position to bargain for its Afrikaner Council and tenth province.

Hoping for the rise of such an openly anti-white party as the EFF is a dangerous game. For minority whites to play the role of kingmaker, they must be able to deal with both sides. Even without a majority, the ANC might think it impossible that the FF+ could sit down at the same table with such bitter opponents as the EFF. At the same time, if the FF+ demands too much, it might push the kindred spirits of the ANC and EFF back together again against the whites.

Could the EFF and FF+ do a deal? If power is the reward, anything is possible, and someone like Mr. Malema might be tempted to make concessions to reach the Presidential Palace. But even if the vision of a President Malema is deeply disturbing, it might be worth paying that price in return for hard concessions that recognized the separate existence, identity, and interests of South African whites.

Stranger things have happened on the African continent.