August 25, 2025

MILTON FRIEDMAN SMILES: Welfare state is not sustainable, says German chancellor.

The German welfare state is no longer financially sustainable, Friedrich Merz said on Saturday.

The chancellor argued for a fundamental reassessment of the benefits system as spending continues to soar past last year’s record of €47bn (£40bn).

In a state-level party conference meeting on Saturday, Mr Merz said: “The welfare state as we have it today can no longer be financed with what we can economically afford.”

Once the export champion of Europe, Germany’s economy has slowed dramatically since 2017, with GDP growing by only 1.6 per cent since then versus 9.5 per cent for the rest of the eurozone.

Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2 per cent last year following a 0.3 per cent dip in 2023 – the first time since the early 2000s the economy has retreated two years in a row.

Industrial production fell under the Left-leaning “traffic light” coalition of Olaf Scholz and continues to slide under the new government, with GDP declining by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.

Meanwhile, spending on social welfare has exploded, and is set to increase further this year as Germany’s population ages and unemployment rises. Although the majority of benefit recipients are German, large numbers are non-German citizens.

In 2022, AP reported that “The U.N. refugee agency said Tuesday it’s giving its highest award to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her efforts to welcome more than 1 million refugees — mostly from Syria — into Germany, despite some criticism both at home and abroad.” Ten years ago, Jim Geraghty quipped:

But as Milton Friedman said in 1997, “It’s just obvious you can’t have free immigration and a welfare state.” But hey, Merkel was Time magazine’s Person of the Year in 2015, so that’s got to count for something, right? (Her Time magazine encomium reads like it was piped in from Bizarro World in retrospect.)

UPDATE:

MORE:

Posted at 6:14 pm by Ed Driscoll 194

QUESTION ASKED:

Related:

And yet last year, Romney tacitly endorsed Harris, in ongoing demonstration of his Stockholm Syndrome.

Posted at 5:49 pm by Ed Driscoll 68

HEH:

Posted at 5:00 pm by Glenn Reynolds 54

DON’T MESS WITH TEXAS: Abbott Expands Second Special Session Agenda After House Passes GOP Redistricting Map.

Quorum-Break Punishments Added to Texas Special Session Agenda

The most politically charged of Abbott’s three additions is legislation to establish penalties or punishments for lawmakers who willfully absent themselves during a session.

Abbott’s proclamation emphasized the need to ensure that “rogue lawmakers cannot hijack the important business of Texans during a legislative session by fleeing the state.” His call reflects frustration with the Democratic quorum break that derailed the first special session and delayed action on redistricting.

Republican leaders had already pursued civil arrest orders and other measures during the walkout, but this legislation seeks a permanent solution. Democrats argue that quorum breaks remain a constitutionally protected tool of the minority, but Abbott’s push attempts to ensure the issue will now receive direct legislative attention.

More like this, please.

Posted at 4:45 pm by Ed Driscoll 35

DOMINIC GREEN: Oasis at Wembley Stadium: England’s Last Band Standing.

Oasis was the most successful and least innovative of the late-1990s Britpop bands. The superlative and its antonym are closely related, for rock music is a deeply conservative form: “We fear change,” said Garth in Wayne’s World, the 1992 comedy about rock’s adolescent ossification. Garth demonstrates this by taking up a hammer and smashing the prosthetic arm of a Frankenstein’s monster in the making. The digital enemy must be destroyed if rock is to survive. Oasis’s early hits included “Live Forever.” And they have. They were the last rock band in 1995. There are none more last.

The molten core of Oasis is the dysfunctional relationship between the Gallagher brothers, Liam and Noel. In Britain, they are usually referred to in that order, but it is not their birth order. Noel is five years older and writes the songs. Liam is the singer. Their priority in public perception is also their priority in public affection. Noel, whose early lyrics include, “I need to be myself, / I can’t be no one else,” is frequently mistaken for Liam, who expresses his need to be himself by doing his best to look and sound like John Lennon in 1966. For several years, their drummer was Zak Starkey, Ringo’s son. This would be taking the Beatles bit too far, were it not that the whole point of Oasis is that they take it too far, and always by staying too near to the Beatles.

Heh. Read the whole thing.

Posted at 4:30 pm by Ed Driscoll 42

THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF HOLLYWOOD:

Like a bad movie, the Zohran Mamdani mania continues. Youth turnout in the New York mayoral primary was up big, and polling shows that 4 out of 5 of them voted for the “democratic socialist.” As did nearly half of women. None, it appears, have ever cracked a history book. A recent Cato Institute/YouGov poll shows almost two-thirds of Americans under 30 have a favorable view of socialism. As Ryan Reynolds’s character in the 2004 “Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle” asks, “But why?”

One answer is that socialism is glorified in movies. Look no further than this summer’s “Jurassic World Rebirth.” Pharmaceutical executive Martin Krebs (Rupert Friend) risks his life and capital to develop a heart drug, Paleodioxin, that will extend human life by 20 years. And he’s the bad guy!

* * * * * * * * *

In many movies, markets are corrupt—see “Wall Street” (1987), “The Wolf of Wall Street” (2013) and “Trading Places” (1983). And entrepreneurs are doofuses: “The Social Network” (2010).

The rare pro-business movie that comes to mind is about a group of private-sector entrepreneurs who flaunt their credentials—“Back off, man, I’m a scientist”—to hold off pushy government regulators and save the world. Yes, I’m calling “Ghostbusters” (1984). Add “The Founder” (2016) about Ray Kroc, “Joy” (2015) about a family business dynasty and “The Pursuit of Happyness” (2006) about a homeless entrepreneur. There aren’t many others.

I enjoyed “Joker” (2019) despite its obvious preaching about awful societal conditions created by capitalism. I’ll even admit to liking most of these films, but when I inevitably spot Hollywood’s “capitalism bad, socialism good” message, I impulsively laugh out loud. Try it.

Exit quote: “Karl Marx isn’t a superhero. We just want to be entertained, not lectured to. Stop the capitalism-is-kaput charade and convincing young voters that socialism is good for anything beyond ruining whatever it touches. Maybe it’s time for an ‘Escape From New York’ (1981) remake.”

Escape From New York came rather late in the “New York as dystopian hellhole” cycle of moviemaking. But if Mamdani wins, he could be the catalyst for a whole host of remakes of that genre of films, such as Death Wish, The Taking of Pelham 1,2,3, The Panic in Needle Park, Taxi Driver and The Warriors.

 Ironically, one of the few Hollywood films in which the capitalist zillionaire is the unalloyed good guy predicted his rise:

UPDATE: It’s worth flashing back to the Substack essay that “George MF Washington” wrote at the beginning of the month on “Hollywood’s Political Morality Police — How the entertainment press enforces Progressive orthodoxy in the movie business,” as the trade publications help to ensure that the company town’s product doesn’t stray from a orthodox leftist worldview.

Posted at 4:14 pm by Ed Driscoll 157

JUST BECAUSE THEY SAY THEY’RE POLICE DOESN’T MEAN THEY ARE: Houston Homeowner Shoots and Kills Two Men in Ski Masks Dressed as Police.

“[The homeowner] became suspicious, because, you know, they have a ring camera too, and the suspects were saying they had a warrant, but it was just two people and they’re masked up and no police cars, no lights or anything like that,” said Lt. Khan with HPD.

At some point, police said the men shot at the homeowner through the door, prompting the homeowner to return fire.

The homeowner was not hurt in the gunfire, but the two men were both hit and pronounced dead at the scene.

Sounds like a story with a happy ending.

Posted at 4:00 pm by Glenn Reynolds 63

GEORGE MF WASHINGTON: It’s The Budgets, Stupid…

Like every movie Hollywood makes, “Lethal Weapon” was a gamble. But at $15 million, it was the kind of low-risk gamble that Movie Studios in the 80’s made all the time.

Here in 2025, we all know that the gamble was a runaway success. The movie which was produced for $15 million grossed more than $120 million ($350 million in today’s dollars), spawned three sequels and a network TV series and has become a universally known part of the culture.

In modern Hollywood, where budgets have exploded seemingly beyond anyone’s control, we generally expect sequel budgets to rival the GDP of small African nations. But while “Lethal Weapon” was indeed a wildly successful franchise starter, WB managed to avoid the temptation to break the bank on a sequel. Yes, they did double the budget (from $15 million to $30 million) but in the context of 2025 where studio blockbusters can cost $250 million or more (the last “Captain America” installment cost an eye-watering $450 million), even adjusted to 2025 dollars “Lethal Weapon” and its first sequel were both cheap to make.

So how did they do it?

Read the whole thing.

Posted at 2:46 pm by Stephen Green 137

VDH ASKS AN EVERGREEN QUESTION: What Made the Democratic Party Go Crazy?

The Democrats abandoned the middle class because they saw it as a global loser and themselves as worldwide winners. They now had the institutions and the big money, along with the leverage of millions of high-paid coastal professionals in law, the media, the university, and the administrative state to win elections by outspending, out-broadcasting, and out-regulating their clueless opponents.

Only the Neanderthals worried about how to buy a small house. The real winners worried about what the latest fad was in natural kitchen counters, cabinets, and flooring. Only the deplorables fretted about electricity costs and gas prices rather than their far more important carbon footprint. Only the blinkered thought about crime, because they lacked the intelligence or savvy to live safely and securely in the right zip code.

The elite university became the farm team for the new elite. Its position papers, grant-funded “research,” and the latest “studies” would supposedly provide the expertise, the “authorities,” and the “experts” to provide the necessarily “correct” analysis of climate change, race, crime, immigration, and foreign policy.

It’s VDH, so read the whole thing.

Posted at 2:35 pm by Ed Driscoll 108

I TRIED TO BURN AN AMERICAN FLAG ONCE. I DIDN’T LIKE IT. IT GAVE OFF TOXIC FUMES, SO I DIDN’T INHALE: Trump Executive Order: Burn the American Flag, Go to Jail.

As “Cynical Publius” tweets, “if you want to go burn your own flag in your own backyard, have at it. But if you want to burn that flag amidst a violent “Death to America” rally paid for by George Soros, that’s something altogether different.” Erick Erickson adds that the EO “isn’t legal, but it will get the Democrats to all go out and burn American flags, yet again putting them on the 20% side of an 80-20 issue.” 

(Classical reference in headline.)

Posted at 2:22 pm by Ed Driscoll 180

OUCH: The geo-economics of Russia’s bad harvest.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western sanctions have sought to isolate the Russian economy. These have largely exempted agricultural exports to protect global food security, particularly in developing countries. For the Kremlin, this omission has become a secure stream of foreign earnings and influence that have helped stabilise the economy and support the war effort. But nature, indifferent to political constraints, may now be doing what Western policymakers have declined to do.

The 2025 harvest is shaping up to be Russia’s worst in years. July saw the country’s lowest grain exports for that month since 2008. This is a result of intensifying climate volatility. Unseasonable spring frosts damaged over 240,000 hectares of crops, with 100,000 hectares lost outright. These were followed by record summer heat, with temperatures above 40°C in key southern regions. Drought conditions this summer have been devastating, with nearly 500,000 hectares destroyed. The authorities in Rostov oblast, a major grain-producing region, declared a state of emergency. Fields once golden with wheat were left parched and cracked. Wheat production forecasts were revised downward from 90 million tonnes to 82m–84m tonnes. Total grain output, which peaked at 158m tonnes in 2022, is now expected to fall to around 130m tonnes.

This comes as pressure mounts on Russia’s once primary source of foreign earnings: hydrocarbon exports. In July, the European Union and the United Kingdom lowered their price cap on Russian crude from US$60 to US$47 per barrel and escalated sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers. US President Donald Trump’s second administration has imposed tariffs on some buyers of Russian oil – most notably India. Crude oil and refined petroleum products now account for less than half of Russia’s export revenues, placing growing importance on alternative sources, including agricultural exports.

Maybe this would be a good time to take up Trump’s offer to broker a decent ceasefire.

Posted at 1:44 pm by Stephen Green 152