Almost two decades ago, some scientists predicted that Arctic summer sea ice would 'soon' disappear. These predictions were mentioned by Al Gore and got a lot of press. However, they did not gain wide acceptance in the scientific community, and were swiftly disproven. Unsurprisingly, this still comes up a lot. Time for a deeper dive into what happened and why... … Read Full Article about “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
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Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman
Here we go again. An obscure, methodologically poor, paper published with little to no review makes a convenient point and gets elevated into supposedly 'blockbusting' science by the merchants of bullshit, sorry, doubt. Actual scientists drop everything to respond, but not before the (convenient) nonsense has spread widely. Rebuttals are written and submitted, but by the time they are published … Read Full Article about Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman
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Unforced variations: Oct 2025
This month's open thread. Lots of salient stuff this month so please try and stay focused and constructive! … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Oct 2025
Lil’ NAS Express
The fast-tracked update of the 2009 EPA Endangerment finding from the National Academies for Science, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM), has now been released. … Read Full Article about Lil’ NAS Express
DOE CWG Report “Moot”?
Somewhat breaking news. A court filing (from 9/4) from DOE has noted that the Climate Working Group has been disbanded (as of 9/3). This was done to make the EDF/UCS lawsuit moot, but it also means that DOE is withdrawing the report, no-one will respond appropriately to the comments submitted, and … Read Full Article about DOE CWG Report “Moot”?
Climate Scientists response to DOE report
As we've mentioned, Andrew Dessler and Robert Kopp have been coordinating a scientific peer review of the DOW 'CWG' Critique of Climate Science. It is now out. … Read Full Article about Climate Scientists response to DOE report
Critique of Chapter 6 “Extreme Weather” in the DOE review
Guest commentary by Kerry Emanuel Executive Summary Chapter 6 of the draft DOE report examines whether global warming exacerbates extreme weather. It rightly notes that because events such as hurricanes are rare, detecting their response to climate change in short and imperfect historical … Read Full Article about Critique of Chapter 6 “Extreme Weather” in the DOE review
Unforced Variations: Sep 2025
This month's open thread. As usual try to remain substantive and avoid insults and personal attacks on other commenters. Any sock-puppetry or abusive comments will just be deleted on sight. Also, please don't outsource your comments to ChatGPT - cut-and-pastes of long-winded LLM output are tedious … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Sep 2025
Critiques of the ‘Critical Review’
The first somewhat comprehensive reviews of the DOE critical review are now coming online. … Read Full Article about Critiques of the ‘Critical Review’
Unforced Variations: Aug 2025
This month's open thread. Please try and stay focused on substance rather than personalities. There are many real issues that are particularly salient this month, and so maybe we can collectively try not to have the comments descend into tedium. Note: Moderation will be applied to over-frequent … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Aug 2025
Are direct water vapor emissions endangering anyone?
In the EPA EF reconsideration document there is a section on p62 where they attempt to make the argument that the CO2 endangerment finding would also apply to direct water vapor emissions to the atmosphere, which is (according to them) obviously absurd. But both claims are bogus. … Read Full Article about Are direct water vapor emissions endangering anyone?
The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding?
The EPA, along with the "Climate Working Group" (CWG) of usual suspects (plus Judith Curry and Ross McKitrick) at DOE, have just put out a document for public comment their attempt to rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding for greenhouse gas emissions. … Read Full Article about The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding?