Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years

  • Published:
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Summary

A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO2 concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO2 concentration remains constant at present, the CO2 greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • K Caldeira BP Duffy (2000) ArticleTitleThe role of the southern ocean in uptake and storage of anthropogeic carbon dioxide Science 287 620–622 Occurrence Handle10.1126/science.287.5453.620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DM Etheridge GI Pearman FD Silva (1988) ArticleTitleAtmospheric trace-gas variations as revealed by air trapped in an ice core from Law Dome, Antarctica Ann Glaciol 10 28–33

    Google Scholar 

  • DM Etheridge LP Steele RL Langenfelds et al. (1996) ArticleTitleNatural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn J Geophys Res 101 4115–4128 Occurrence Handle10.1029/95JD03410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • H Fischer M Wahlen J Smith et al. (1999) ArticleTitleIce core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations Science 283 1712–1714 Occurrence Handle10.1126/science.283.5408.1712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JP Hao DJ Huang (2001) ArticleTitleMirror extending and circular spline functions for Empirical Mode Decomposition method J Zhejiang Univ (Sci) 2 247–252 Occurrence Handle10.1631/jzus.2001.0247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton JT et al (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, pp 1–94

  • NE Huang Z Shen SR Long et al. (1998) ArticleTitleThe empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis Proc R Soc Land A 454 899–955 Occurrence Handle10.1098/rspa.1998.0192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NE Huang Z Shen SR Long (1999) ArticleTitleA new view of nonlinear water waves: the Hilbert spectrum Ann Rev Fluid Mech 31 417–457 Occurrence Handle10.1146/annurev.fluid.31.1.417

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • PD Jones (1994) ArticleTitleHemispheric surface air temperature variations: A reanalysis and an update to 1993 J Climate 7 1794–1802 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1794:HSATVA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • PD Jones A Moberg (2003) ArticleTitleHemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001 J Climate 16 206–223 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0206:HALSSA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • PD Jones M New DE Parker et al. (1999) ArticleTitleSurface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years Rev Geophys 37 173–199 Occurrence Handle10.1029/1999RG900002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • F Joos G-K Plattner TF Stocker et al. (1999) ArticleTitleGlobal warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2 Science 284 464–467 Occurrence Handle10.1126/science.284.5413.464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • S Manabe RJ Stouffer (1993) ArticleTitleCentury-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean-atmosphere system Nature 364 215–218 Occurrence Handle10.1038/364215a0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • S Manabe RJ Stouffer (1994) ArticleTitleMultiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide J Climate 7 5–23 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0005:MCROAC>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ME Michael P Jeffrey (1995) ArticleTitleGlobal interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries Nature 378 266–270 Occurrence Handle10.1038/378266a0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • VI Morgan CW Wookey J Li et al. (1997) ArticleTitleSite information and initial results from deep ice drilling on Law Dome J Glaciol 43 3–10

    Google Scholar 

  • JR Petit J Jouzel D Raynaud et al. (1999) ArticleTitleClimate and atmosphere history of the past 420.000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica Nature 399 429–436 Occurrence Handle10.1038/20859

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JL Sarmiento CL Quere (1996) ArticleTitleOceanic carbon dioxide uptake in a model of century-scale global warming Science 274 1346–1350 Occurrence Handle10.1126/science.274.5291.1346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JL Sarmiento TMC Hughes RJ Stouffer et al. (1998) ArticleTitleSimulated response of the ocean carbon to anthropogenic climate warming Nature 393 245–249 Occurrence Handle10.1038/30455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ME Schlesinger N Ramankutty (1994) ArticleTitleAn oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years Nature 367 723–726 Occurrence Handle10.1038/367723a0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • T Schneider MI Held (2001) ArticleTitleDiscriminants of twentieth-century changes in earth surface temperatures J Climate 14 249–254 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0249:LDOTCC>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U Siegenthaler JL Sarmiento (1993) ArticleTitleAtmosphere carbon dioxide and the ocean Nature 365 119–125 Occurrence Handle10.1038/365119a0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • B Stauffer T Blunier A Dällenbach et al. (1998) ArticleTitleAtmosphere CO2 concentration and millennial-scale climate change during the last glacial period Nature 392 429–436 Occurrence Handle10.1038/32133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • PA Stott JA Kettleborough (2002) ArticleTitleOrigins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise Nature 416 723–726 Occurrence Handle10.1038/416723a

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SW Wang JL Ye YD Gong et al. (1998) ArticleTitleConstruction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China Quart J Appl Meteor 19 IssueID4 392–401

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, P. R. China

    Lin Zhen-Shan & Sun Xian

Authors
  1. Lin Zhen-Shan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Sun Xian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Zhen-Shan, L., Xian, S. Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 95, 115–121 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0199-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0199-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation