As pundits dissect how Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore in a stunning election Tuesday, one factor keeps surfacing as a major factor: Write-in votes.
Close to 23,000 write-votes were submitted, representing 1.7 percent of the overall vote. Jones's margin of victory was slightly under 21,000, and assuming those votes would have otherwise gone to Republican Roy Moore, the write-in selections were a major determining factor in the election's outcome.
President Donald Trump, on Twitter, said the write-in votes played a "very big factor" in the Jones victory.
Political observers believe senior Alabama Senator Richard Shelby's vocal support for a write-in candidate played a crucial factor in determining the outcome of a razor-thin statewide race. Jones became the first Democrat to win an Alabama Senate seat in 25 years.
"I didn't see ahead of time that many people going and wasting their vote to write someone in during the special election," said Steve Flowers, an author and columnist for over 60 newspapers in Alabama who once served as a Republican member of the Alabama Legislature.
"In hindsight now, Shelby openly saying he was voting for someone as a write-in gave credence for other Republicans to write in someone's name," Flowers said.
Indeed, Shelby's appearances on national TV shows this weekend prompted the Jones campaign to utilize his comments in last-minute campaign ads and robocalls.
Shelby, a longtime Republican, announced late last month that he voted absentee and for a "distinguished Republican write-in." And his lack of support for Moore's candidacy has been viewed a rarity in recent modern American politics in which a sitting senator did not vocally endorse his party's nominee for the junior senator post within his own state.
Shelby was criticized by the Moore faction for his vote. In the past two weeks, he received some of the loudest boos at Moore's pre-election rallies, and was criticized by former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon.
Jonathan Gray, a Republican political strategist in coastal Alabama, said Shelby simply "spoke his mind." Gray said he doesn't believe the 83-year-old Shelby will be running for re-election in 2022.
"He's not running for re-election and he's no longer a politician and he does not care what the Republican Party will think of him anymore," said Gray.
The Jones-backed robocall utilizing Shelby's statements was a "masterful" campaign strategy, Gray added.
"All they did was lift the interview from CNN and placed it into a phone call ... it sounded like a phone call from Shelby," Gray said. "I absolutely think Richard Shelby did have a big impact. It was not his intentions, but it was how he got utilized."
Jim McLaughlin, a political strategist and prominent Republican pollster, disagrees. He believes there were many factors underscored by what he said was "a flawed candidate from the beginning."
"Roy Moore lost Talladega County, the NASCAR capitol of the universe, and if you have an 'R' next to your name and lose Talladega County to a liberal Democrat, you don't deserve to be a U.S. Senator," McLaughlin said. "Saying Richard Shelby cost Roy Moore the election is like Hillary Clinton saying Russian collusion is the reason why she lost. It's simply fake news."
Shelby, in a statement Wednesday, congratulated Jones for his victory.
"The people of Alabama have spoken," Shelby said. "I spoke with him this morning, and I look forward to working together to do what's best for the great state of Alabama."
Jones, in a news conference Wednesday, said what Shelby did "was important for the state of Alabama."
"Not for my campaign, but he was one of those rare Republicans in the state of Alabama who essentially said 'enough is enough' and 'I won't be able to go there,'" said Jones, recalling what he told the senator during a phone call earlier in the day.
McLaughlin, called Shelby a "true statesman in a place where there aren't a lot of statesmen left."
"Right now, he is the most popular political leader in Alabama," said McLaughlin. "He is not just the moral voice right now for Alabama, but he probably enjoys more clout for Alabama in the U.S. Senate than ever before. That's a really good thing for Alabama."
Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University and a longtime observer of Alabama politics, said he thinks Shelby is probably secretively "pleased with the election outcome."
"My guess is Mitch McConnell is pleased with the election outcome and numerous senators running for re-election in 2018 are pleased with the outcome," said Brown. "They'd rather have 51 Republicans than 52 Republicans and one being a political lightning rod like Roy Moore."
As for Shelby, Brown said: "This makes him a powerful insider in Washington and he can be independent at home."