The end of cheap uranium
Introduction
Nuclear fission energy in industrial societies is often proposed as a long term replacement for the limited fossil fuel resources and as a solution to the environmental problems related to their use. However, even 50 years after commercial nuclear fission power began, nuclear reactors produce less than 14% of the world's electric energy, which itself makes only about 16% of our final energy demand.1 More than 80% of the 440 nuclear power plants, with a capacity of 374 GWe,2 are operated in the richer OECD countries, where they produce about 21% of the annual electric energy.1 The relatively small nuclear energy contribution today indicates that even a minor transition from fossil to nuclear fuel for generating electric energy over the next 20 to 30 years would require significant increases in the use of nuclear fuel.
During the last few years a “nuclear energy renaissance” strategy was discussed in many countries. However, after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the enthusiasm to build new reactors has slowed down in most countries and even the planning for some replacement strategies for the aging existing nuclear power plant in most OECD countries has been brought essentially to a standstill. From the 68 reactors currently under construction in 14 countries, one finds that 46 of them are build in just three countries — China, India and Russia.2 As a result, even the Word Nuclear Association (WNA) can imagine at most a worldwide nuclear growth scenario of 1–2%/year during the next 10–15 years.3 Among the many problems related with this small growth scenario is the little discussed but fundamental issue of uranium fuel supply.4
In this paper we present our findings about the future uranium supply. Our results are obtained from a study of deposit depletion profiles from past and present uranium mining. Our analysis shows that the existing and planned uranium mines up to 2030 allow at most an increase of the uranium supply from 54 ktons (54 000 t) in 20105 to 58 ± 4 ktons in 2015. Furthermore, the data indicate that after 2015 production will decline by at least 0.5 ktons/year. The annual uranium supply around 2025 and 2030 is thus predicted to reach at most 54 ± 5 ktons and 41 ± 5 ktons respectively. These numbers are not even anywhere near the present global usage, about 68 ktons/year, and imply significant shortages over coming decades. We thus predict an end of the current situation of cheap uranium and a voluntary or forced worldwide nuclear phase-out scenario. It is in fact roughly consistent with the new policies, following the Fukushima accident, proposed in May 2011 by the governments in Germany and Switzerland.
We start our analysis with countries where uranium mining was stopped or reduced to about 10% of the past production levels because of depletion (Section 2). The more accurate recent mining data from Canada and Australia are used to formulate a simple and accurate mining and depletion model (Section 3). In Section 4 this model is applied to the currently operating and planned future uranium mines up to 2030.
Section snippets
Lessons from past uranium mining and depletion
Significant uranium extraction started after the Second World War.[6], [7] Including the year 2010, a total of about 2.5 million tons of uranium have been mined and about 2 million tons have been used for electric energy production. Most of the remaining 500 ktons are essentially under the control of the military in Russia and the USA.
Uranium mining between 1945 and 2005 can be divided into three periods. The first period (1945–1975) can be associated with the rush to fulfill the military uranium
A hypothesis about the mining of uranium deposits
With a few exceptions, annual mining results from individual mines are publicly available only for the past few years. The better documented data from uranium mining centers in Saskatchewan (Canada) and Australia are summarized in Table 2.9 The data from the long established mining centers show that the mining was actually undertaken on several nearby deposits. These deposits were exploited successively and in such a way that a relatively stable level of production was sustained over decades.
Extraction profiles, the future demand/supply situation
The above model (hypothesis) can now be applied to the larger currently operating uranium mines and the ones which are in a serious planning phase. Considering that the achieved plateau values from past operations were usually smaller than the ones planned, our model probably overestimates the future production. Furthermore, as in the past, the planned start-up dates for new mines are uncertain and delays of several years are common. It follows that the results from our model should be
Summary
The data about terminated uranium mining in different countries and regions demonstrate that on average only 50–70% of initial uranium resource estimates can be extracted.
Using the more precise data about the uranium extraction from recent individual mines and deposits in Canada and Australia a depletion model for modern uranium mines can be derived. This model states that modern mines minimize the extractions costs such that the mining of a given deposit result in (1) an effective lifetime of
Acknowledgments
This analysis is a result of many, mostly unfruitful, discussions with pro nuclear enthusiasts about uranium being a finite resource like fossil fuels and about the difference between actual and future uranium mining and the exploitable amounts of uranium in the earth crust.
Even though the results and views expressed in this paper are from the author alone, I would like to thank several friends, colleagues and students who took the trouble to discuss the question of uranium resources with me.
References (24)
- Data about electric energy production in different countries and from the different sources can be found at...
Data about the world nuclear reactors and their performance are available at the PRIS
- The uranium requirements under the three WNA future scenarios, a slow growth of 1–2% per year or a decline of −1%/year...
- The press declaration for the publication of the 2009 edition of the Red Book contains a warning statement about...
- The reported uranium mining results from all countries and for the last few years including 2010 are summarized at...
The 2006 review “Forty Years of Uranium Resources, Production and Demand in Perspective. The Red Book Retrospective”
- The latest 2009 edition of the Red Book from the IAEA and the NEA under Google books or at...
- The world distribution of uranium deposits from the IAEA database UDEPO can be found at...
- Detailed reports about recent uranium mining in Canada and Australia and further references can be found in the WNA...
The detailed McArthur River Technical report from 2009 can be found at the website of CAMECO, the main operator of the mine
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