Numbers don’t lie: As terrible as the Giants’ offense has been, the pitching has been worse

LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 19: Manager Bruce Bochy #15 walks to the mound to pull starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz #37 of the San Francisco Giants from the fifth inning of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on June 19, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
By Andrew Baggarly
Jun 20, 2019

LOS ANGELES – It is bad. You already know it is bad.

You probably don’t want to pore (glaze?) over statistical evidence that shows just how bad it is.

So we won’t bother you with any of that. We won’t delve into all the ways the Giants’ offense is a colossal disappointment this season.

Instead, we’ll delve into all the ways the pitching has been even worse. Yes, worse. Especially the starting pitching.

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Really, it has! Even with Madison Bumgarner plowing through mostly quality starts, Jeff Samardzija performing beyond modest expectations and the back end of the bullpen establishing itself as one of the most dependable units in the big leagues, the Giants’ pitching staff ranked last in the majors with -5.2 wins above average.

And that was before Wednesday night, when Drew Pomeranz ladled sauce on a fastball in the first inning, Chris Taylor hit a three-run homer and the Giants trailed 6-0 after the third inning of a 9-2 loss at Dodger Stadium.

Sure, the Giants’ offense collected four hits a night after it collected four hits, a night after it collected three. (And the Giants failed to break through Wednesday despite Dodgers starting pitcher Rich Hill leaving after one inning because of forearm discomfort.) The bats are slow, slow, slow. In terms of position player wins above average, the Giants’ -4.6 ranking is seventh-worst in the majors. Their adjusted OPS is tied with the Tigers for the worst in baseball.

The Giants’ lineup was never going to be good enough to allow the club to contend past Memorial Day, or even pretend.

But the pitching? You can do better than argue that it’s been worse. You can prove it.

So what happened? How can a pitching staff with Bumgarner and a not-awful Samardzija and some positive flashes from rookie Shaun Anderson and closer Will Smith knocking down 19 saves in 19 chances and all of those setup relievers turning themselves into hot trade commodities be providing the least amount of value of any pitching staff in the major leagues?

Well, as Vin Scully would say, pull up a chair and enjoy the verbal masochism. Here’s what the numbers tell us:

— The first inning has been bad. Very, very bad.

It happened again Wednesday night. The Giants just cannot avoid crooked numbers in the first inning. They have been outscored 71-19. It is hard to fathom getting out of the blocks any worse without replacing the starter’s pistol with an accidental discharge and a blood-curdling scream. But set aside that deleterious run differential for a moment. We’re here to focus on the pitching.

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The Giants have allowed 71 runs in the first inning. A reminder: They have played 72 games. Friends, this is hard to do. You don’t need a napkin and a hard surface to pencil it out: This translates to roughly a 9.00 ERA.

It’s even worse when you look at it in terms of slugging percentage. The Giants entered Wednesday getting slugged to the tune of .670 in the first inning. The next-worst major-league staff, the Orioles, were getting sluggo’d at a .505 clip. There is almost as great a chasm between the Giants and 29th-ranked Orioles as there is between the 29th-ranked Orioles and the Twins, whose staff leads the major leagues in first-inning slugging percentage.

And home runs, my goodness, the home runs. The Giants have allowed 28 of them in the first inning. The Orioles, as you might have guessed, are next with 17. The Twins, as you also might have guessed, are first with five allowed. A graph would be more powerful here, but you get the idea. The Giants (No. 30) have allowed 11 more than the Orioles (No. 29) who have allowed 12 more than the Twins (No. 1).

The Giants have allowed nearly 8 percent of the first-inning home runs hit in the major leagues this season. Helpful reminder: The Giants account for just 3.3 percent of the league.

— It won’t surprise you, then, that the Giants’ rotation is the worst in baseball.

But maybe it will surprise you that the staff is twice as bad as the next-worst group in baseball. The Giants’ rotation entered Wednesday with -5.5 wins above replacement. The 29th-ranked Royals were at -2.8.

If quality starts is more your jam, the Giants have just 23 of them. Only the Reds and Brewers have fewer in the NL, and those are teams that are designed to get into their bullpen earlier in games.

— Giants pitchers aren’t putting away batters with two strikes.

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Pomeranz had a 1-2 count on Taylor when he missed on a pair of curveballs, one low and one high. Then he threw a fastball in the middle of the zone that resulted in spilled beer in the pavilion.

This has happened far too often.

On the bright side, the Giants’ pitching staff ranks first in the National League by getting to an 0-2 count in 28.8 percent of plate appearances. The only two teams in the majors who are better, the Rays and Twins, are having outstanding seasons on the mound. That’s good!

The Giants also have thrown first-pitch strikes 62.9 percent of the time. Only the Dodgers are operating at a higher rate in the NL. Also good!

But there is a difference between getting ahead and putting away batters, and it has become painfully obvious this season. Opponents are hitting .191 against the Giants in at-bats that reached an 0-2 count, which might sound encouraging until you realize the league baseline is .165.

In fact, the Giants are the least successful NL staff at recording outs after an 0-2 count; only the Tigers have been worse in the majors.

“With some pitchers, it’s just being consistent at making that quality, put-away pitch,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. “And it depends on whether those two-strike counts are deep counts. If you throw more pitches, you give the hitter a better look at you. And I think that’s what happened to us tonight.”

This assumes the Giants actually have pitchers with put-away stuff, which is not something Bochy would speak to even if he could.

The data speaks for him: Giants pitchers rank last in the NL with 434 swinging strikeouts. They are in the solid upper third in the majors when it comes to called strikeouts, which might have something to do with the framing talents of Buster Posey. But overall, their best stuff is not missing enough bats. They are generating an NL-low 17.5 percent of their strikes on swings and misses.

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Opponents are making contact – either by putting pitches in play or fouling them off – on 76.3 percent of the swings they take against the Giants. That’s the highest rate in the NL. That means a lot of deep counts, even when the pitcher successfully gets ahead.

And a lot of that contact is getting barreled. Bumgarner, for all the measurable uptick in his stuff this season, has the hardest hit rate in the major leagues, according to Baseball Info Solutions.

– They aren’t making the clutch pitch to shut down innings or minimize threats – and not just in the first inning, either.

The Giants are allowing an .891 OPS with runners in scoring position, which is the worst in the major leagues. They have allowed 32 homers with runners in scoring position, which is the most in the NL and third worst in the majors (behind the Orioles and Mariners).

They have just 124 strikeouts with runners in scoring position – the second-fewest in the majors.

The result? They are serving up more ribeyes than Harris Ranch.

– Did we mention?

That Pomeranz and Derek Holland, two of the three pitchers given guaranteed deals by club president Farhan Zaidi over the winter, have been colossal disappointments? And that the third, Pat Venditte, got outrighted after two toxic appearances? And that nearly all their promising inventory of arms in the minor leagues is in Class A and below?

And that pitching coach Curt Young was hospitalized with a post-operative knee infection and has been away from the team while recovering?

– It’s about to get worse. Probably.

The Giants are in last place in the NL West at 31-41 but are clearly outperforming their run differential, which now stands at an NL-worst minus-97. This is because they have a major league-best 16-7 record in one-run games, and that is mostly because they have Smith, Tony Watson and Sam Dyson in the bullpen.

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I’ll let you decide whether to take that as a happy plus or whether to begin sobbing into your half-gallon of choice.

Because after the July 31 trade deadline, they might not have any of those guys. They probably won’t have Bumgarner, either.

And those two months of innings still have to be pitched.

(Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)

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Andrew Baggarly

Andrew Baggarly is a senior writer for The Athletic and covers the San Francisco Giants. He has covered Major League Baseball for more than two decades, including the Giants since 2004 for the Oakland Tribune, San Jose Mercury News and Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. He is the author of two books that document the most successful era in franchise history: “A Band of Misfits: Tales of the 2010 San Francisco Giants” and “Giant Splash: Bondsian Blasts, World Series Parades and Other Thrilling Moments By the Bay.” Follow Andrew on Twitter @extrabaggs