Despite pre-release estimates suggesting a terrible domestic bow and subsequent bellyflop at the worldwide box office, Alita: Battle Angel has fought its way to $402.6 million in global receipts and looks to finish its theatrical run just shy of $405 million. A moral victory more than a financial one, Alita's box office nevertheless helps Fox avoid a major write-down and even sets the stage for legitimate discussions about a sequel.
As my esteemed colleague Scott Mendelson noted in his writeup about Alita's box office fate, the film's foreign box office includes $132.6 million from China, of which the studio will only see approximately $35 million. From the rest of the international marketplace and North American territories combined, Alita will hit $170 million in revenue returned to the studio (since most markets see a 50/50 split between the studios and theaters, while China only sends 25-30% back to the studios). That's enough to cover the production budget, although I hear there were enough tax incentives and other rebates to actually shave a few additional million bucks off the final shooting budget.
When it hits the home entertainment market and television, Alita should cover its marketing costs as well. For comparison, Solo: A Star Wars Story -- which took $393 million at the worldwide box office -- has grossed an estimated $100+ million in domestic DVD/Blu-ray/Digital-HD sales and rentals, and that's without including worldwide home sales and rentals. Solo and Alita both received A- grades from audiences via Cinemascore, and both received mixed-positive reviews from critics.
Other comparisons to sci-fi action-adventure releases with similar box office and reactions include Star Trek Beyond, Terminator: Genysis, Blade Runner 2049, Edge of Tomorrow, and Pacific Rim. In each case, the films underperformed and had anywhere from B+ to A- audience grades, and had relatively modest home entertainment outcomes. But here's the catch -- even those modest home release numbers suggest Alita: Battle Angel should perform well enough to cover marketing costs and possibly even have a few dollars in black ink when all is said and done. Merchandising will be where any real profit margins come, though, and even there it's likely to be modest at best.
But while there's slim comfort in declaring "break even" a victory, this is still undeniably a far better outcome than most people predicted or expected. In my own review for Alita on opening weekend, I said I thought it would probably take about $350+/- million, and that anything north of $400 million could be fairly considered dodging a bullet, in light of the negative media coverage and apparent audience ambivalence toward the release. Well, consider the bullet dodged, then.
There's no denying Fox had higher hopes for Alita: Battle Angel, and it was a passion project for producer James Cameron. So they are surely disappointed it hasn't launched a successful blockbuster franchise yet. "Yet," I say, because while most consider a sequel unlikely at this point, Disney's purchase of 20th Century Fox and their excitement over securing a partnership with James Cameron for his Avatar franchise, plus Disney's desire for more IP to exploit via theatrical and streaming productions, means we surely haven't seen the last of the property. I can imagine Disney convincing Cameron to produce a streaming series to continue the Alita franchise on Disney+ as either a live-action or animated series... or Cameron convincing Disney that in the aftermath of the first Avatar sequel plus significant reworking of the Alita property to make the sequel story bigger and better than the first film, an Alita sequel with a better release date could score stronger box office next time around.
The point being, while the reasons to be disappointed are obvious, $400+ million as the face of "failure" for an IP isn't exactly a kiss of death. Had the budget been a little lower and had the box office been a little higher, we'd be having a different conversation right now. True, those things didn't happen, but it's not hard to imagine getting there. And while we can look at other failed franchise launches as reasons to be skeptical of Alita's chances in the future, we can also look at previous relatively lower-grossing launches that eventually spawned increasingly profitable series.
The key ingredients here are a very popular manga and anime series, and James Cameron himself. Cameron's history of success -- especially in the face of media skepticism -- is obvious. Even in the case of Alita, the fact we are now talking about the film avoiding losing money and eventually even generating some moderate profit from merchandising, rather than the flop and major write-down just about every entertainment outlet and journalist anticipated, speaks to the point the press hasn't fully accepted the truth of "never bet against Cameron." There are obvious paths forward to tweak Alita and find a path to success for this franchise, and it would be crazy to deny Cameron that opportunity if he wants to continue with this property.
It could be, of course, that Cameron has lost interest in moving forward with additional entries in Alita's story, and if that's the case then we surely won't see a sequel, be it theatrical or streaming. Indeed, Cameron could certainly be forgiven if he decides the multiple Avatar sequels require enough of his attention to make the Alita franchise less interesting at the moment. But Cameron already expressed his hopes the first film would spawn sequels, and that he already had ideas and plans for additional Alita films, so I doubt he has written it off at the moment.
With hindsight, I suspect everyone involved in the project wishes they'd stuck with the Christmas 2018 release date, instead of moving to avoid competition from Mary Poppins and Bumblebee. Aquaman was of course a monster hit, but there was plenty of room at the holiday box office for another film to break out, and I strongly suspect Alita: Battle Angel would've been the other film to deliver big results in light of Mary Poppins and Bumblebee turning in softer performances. This is pure speculation, obviously, but looking at how the Christmas season played out, I believe Alita could've topped $500+ million if it released sometime during the back half of December 2018.
It is questions like that, and the fact Alita wound up playing better than expected after all, that make me believe it's a mistake to discount the potential for a sequel. But whatever else happens with the IP in the future, for now the real story is that instead of being a major flop resulting in a huge write-down by 20th Century Fox, Alita: Battle Angel will wind up breaking even and probably generating some small amount of profit from all merchandising when the dust settles.
Check this space for additional updates, including if and when we find out what the future has in store for the Alita: Battle Angel property, dear readers. I for one am rooting for a sequel or continuation series on Disney+, as I enjoyed the first film immensely and believe the property still has great potential. Hopefully Cameron and Disney make a deal to keep it alive.
Box office figures and tallies based on data via Box Office Mojo , Rentrak, and TheNumbers.
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